Saint Paul, MN. MRO’s 2023 Regional Summer Assessment (2023 RSA) is an independent staff assessment of reliability of the regional bulk power system for the upcoming summer season (June through September). The 2023 RSA finds that although anticipated resources are sufficient to meet normal summer demand, extreme summer peak loads coupled with planned and forced generation outages could result in energy shortfalls across the region. The risk of energy shortfalls is reduced from the 2022 summer season due to additional firm import commitments, lower peak demand forecast, and higher water levels from the Missouri River and other water sources used for cooling.
The report also indicates that the performance of wind generation during periods of high demand will be a key factor in determining whether there will be sufficient electricity supply on the system. MISO and SPP may face challenges in meeting normal or extreme peak demand if wind resource output is below historical norms.
Long-term trends suggest that increases in conventional generation forced outage rates point to these resources cycling more than originally designed, causing component failures driven in part by higher penetrations of intermittent resources. Additionally, human error continues to be the primary contributing factor for system protection misoperations. These risks require continued monitoring and focus.
MRO’s 2023 RSA complements NERC’s 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment, which provides an evaluation of resource and transmission system adequacy necessary to meet projected summer peak demands across all of North America. MRO’s assessment focuses on the resources needed to meet peak demand in MRO’s regional footprint, as well as evaluates past system performance to identify concerns and trends that might impact reliability during the upcoming summer season.
The report provides recommendations for industry, state and provincial regulators, and other key decision makers to reduce the risk of energy shortfalls during the 2023 summer season. MRO staff will use the findings from this assessment to determine appropriate outreach topics and assist registered entities in the region with becoming more aware of, and reducing, risk to, their individual systems.
A webinar on the 2023 RSA findings is planned for June 29, 2023.
Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO) is a non-profit organization dedicated to ensuring the reliability and security of the bulk power system in the central region of North America, including parts of both the United States and Canada. MRO is one of six regional entities in North America operating under authority from regulators in the United States through a delegation agreement with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and in Canada under similar arrangements. The primary focus of MRO is developing and ensuring compliance with reliability standards and assessing the grid’s ability to meet the demands for electricity.