The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) published the Interregional Transfer Capability Study (ITCS) Canadian Analysis Final Report on April 29, 2025. The analysis, combined with the U.S. analysis completed last year, provides a complete picture of the crucial role that the Canadian system plays in ensuring the reliability and resilience of the interconnected North American bulk power system.
The Canadian Analysis was conducted using a common approach and a consistent set of assumptions in collaboration with industry. The analysis focused on the transfer capabilities between Transmission Planning Regions (TPRs) and the reliability benefits of enhancing cross-provincial and cross-border transmission capabilities. The study found that transfer capability is stronger between Canada and the United States but weaker between the Canadian provinces. Reliability risks are highly dependent on regional weather conditions and the analysis identified potential energy inadequacy in all 12 of the weather years studied. Limited transfer capability between the Canadian provinces could pose significant reliability challenges, particularly under extreme weather conditions. The study identified that an additional 12 to 14 gigawatts of interregional transfer capacity could substantially improve grid reliability and resilience under extreme conditions.
Manitoba (MH) and SaskPower Corporation (SPC) are located in the Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO) region; MRO was responsible for collecting and reviewing the Manitoba and Saskatchewan provincial information for the analysis. MH has abundant hydro resources and short-term drought conditions are less likely to cause energy shortages. Nevertheless, prolonged drought conditions could have potential negative impacts on power grid reliability. The strong MH–Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) interregional tie should help mitigate potential energy shortages. Energy deficits were identified for SPC under extreme weather conditions. These deficiencies could be addressed through additional transfer capability, including the expansion of cross-Interconnection capability and new connections.
The study identified 500 MW of transfer capability additions needed to resolve the deficiencies, with the optimal choice being a new connection to MISO-West.
The ITCS Canadian Analysis demonstrates the importance of transmission in expanding the use of resources and offers valuable insights for exploring reliability and resilience under extreme weather conditions. The ITCS initiative page on NERC’s website contains all the Canadian Analysis information, along with other important resources.
– Dianlong Wang, MRO Principal Reliability Assessment Engineer